Richard Boyd Barrett: Budget Overruns and Education Staffing
Richard Boyd Barrett challenged departmental transparency in a parliamentary session in May, pressing ministers on Budget 2026 forecasts and a projected 114,000 whole-time-equivalent workforce for the Department of Education. He quotes the Fiscal Advisory Council's warning that it is difficult to discern likely overruns for 2025 and asks why monthly departmental spending profiles were not consistently provided.
In the Dail exchange Richard Boyd Barrett sought clarity on the Department of Education figure of 114,000 whole-time equivalents and whether that reflects new special-needs and existing requirements. He also highlighted the Fiscal Advisory Council's (IFAC) concern that current spending could be as much as 0.7 billion higher than forecast in Budget 2026.
The minister referenced the December 2025 medium-term fiscal structural plan, which sets macro and fiscal figures out to 2030 and the medium-term expenditure framework used to inform expenditure ceilings. Officials confirmed the fiscal monitor is published each month and compares expenditure by vote group against profile and year-on-year positions.
Boyd Barrett emphasised the need for clear monthly departmental spending profiles and better forecasting horizons so parliamentary committees and independent bodies like IFAC can assess likely overruns. He flagged that further detail will become available when the revised estimate is presented to the House.
The exchange underlines questions about post-budget monitoring, staffing increases in education and the adequacy of published forecasts. The discussion will feed into upcoming committee scrutiny when revised estimates and supporting profiles are laid before the House.
Summary of the exchange
In the Dail exchange Richard Boyd Barrett sought clarity on the Department of Education figure of 114,000 whole-time equivalents and whether that reflects new special-needs and existing requirements. He also highlighted the Fiscal Advisory Council's (IFAC) concern that current spending could be as much as 0.7 billion higher than forecast in Budget 2026.
Published material and government response
The minister referenced the December 2025 medium-term fiscal structural plan, which sets macro and fiscal figures out to 2030 and the medium-term expenditure framework used to inform expenditure ceilings. Officials confirmed the fiscal monitor is published each month and compares expenditure by vote group against profile and year-on-year positions.
Transparency and oversight implications
Boyd Barrett emphasised the need for clear monthly departmental spending profiles and better forecasting horizons so parliamentary committees and independent bodies like IFAC can assess likely overruns. He flagged that further detail will become available when the revised estimate is presented to the House.
What this means going forward
The exchange underlines questions about post-budget monitoring, staffing increases in education and the adequacy of published forecasts. The discussion will feed into upcoming committee scrutiny when revised estimates and supporting profiles are laid before the House.
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Transcript
Well on that question I mean I suppose you might ask in the departments or maybe the Public Sector Reform know how they sort of put that document together and how that's done. So that's coming out in the next few weeks, so it's May, so we'll have to deal with that, our committee will have to deal with that. But just a couple of other things, can you just remind me, on the 114,000 whole-time equivalents workforce, that's for the Department of Education based on the new projected sort of needs, special needs and all existing stuff, is it? And is that, what's that an increase on? I don't have the details around that Deputy, they're just the high level pieces I have. Are they available for everybody to get them? So obviously they will be available when the revised estimate is presented to the House, there'll be more detail across what that expenditure is. Likely that is a fairly significant increase in staffing, permanent staffing, S&As and so on, yeah. Yes. Okay, the Fiscal Advisory Council have been critical of the Department on a couple of things. You mentioned, because somebody was asking there earlier on about the monthly reports, now maybe this isn't the same thing, but just you can clarify, quoting from the Fiscal Advisory Council, it's hard for the Council to discern what the likely overrun in 2025 will be, despite requesting the monthly departmental spending profiles. On several occasions the Department of Public Spenditure has failed to provide them to the Council. And it says, yeah, based on current recent trends, current spending could be as much as 0.7 billion higher than forecast in Budget 2026, which has now turned out to be the case. These post-budget overruns are fundamental budgetary failings. So I'd just be interested if you'd like to comment on that. And they also were critical on, and things may have changed since this was written, but on the forecast horizon for budget forecasts, saying that the Budget 2026 forecasts are the shortest forecasts, whereas say for Budget 25 we had forecasts that went out six years, Budget 2024 four years, but we only have, is it a year or two years for Budget 2026? So maybe just a comment on that as well. Yeah Deputy, thanks. So in December 2025 the medium-term fiscal structural plan was published, which sets out macro and fiscal figures out to 2030. So that includes the expenditure ceilings that IFAC is referring to, yes. And I suppose we've also published, which fed into government deciding those ceilings, a medium-term expenditure framework which looks at cost drivers across the total amount of expenditure and sets out a scenario analysis looking forward. So subsequent to that feedback there is lots of information published out to 2030 now. Okay, and the monthly stuff? So every month on the third working day of each month Deputy, the fiscal monitor is published and the fiscal monitor compares expenditure by vote group against their profile for the year and against their year-on-year position. So it provides a detail in terms of the additionality on the year-on-year basis and it sets out the detail of whether or not they're within their expected position at that time. So with that criticism you would say it was not fair, would you? Well that's what we that's what we publish in the fiscal...