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Joe O'Reilly praises economic gains and warns on tariffs

Joe O'Reilly praises economic gains and warns on tariffs

Joe O'Reilly addressed the Senate on the economic outlook, praising the minister's management of the economy and warning about emerging tariff risks. He highlighted strong labour market and fiscal positions while urging readiness on infrastructure, investment and skills.

Economic backdrop


Joe O'Reilly said the economy is in a strong position, citing 2.8 million people in employment, 4% unemployment, easing inflation and a surplus of 8.7 billion. He credited both government management and public buy-in for those outcomes and described them as a solid starting point for future challenges.

Tariff threat and risks


He warned that recent tariff threats create a new reality and called it a challenge to be ready for, noting a pause on more severe measures but that a 10% level remains. He warned tariffs would hurt consumers both domestically and in the United States and said they could potentially affect employment and public finances.

Reserves and strategic funds


O'Reilly welcomed the establishment of the National Reserve Fund (the Rainy Day Fund) in 2019 and stressed the importance of continuing to consolidate it as protection against shocks such as pandemics, agricultural threats or climate events. He also highlighted the Pension Reserve Fund and the Strategic Investment Fund as key tools for future-proofing.

Infrastructure and housing


He urged sustained investment in water infrastructure and a stronger linkage between Irish Water and housing development to prevent planning and building delays. He cited Virginia in County Cavan as an example where sewerage and water upgrades have held back permitted housing developments despite high local demand for private and social housing.

Skills and technology


O'Reilly called for continued investment in human capital, education, apprenticeships and upskilling so the workforce can benefit from technological change, including artificial intelligence. He said Ireland must be an active participant in the AI revolution and not be held back by fear of its downsides.

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Transcript
Very welcome Minister, good to have you back in the Senate and indeed to thank you for your management of the economy that has left us in the kind of shape and position that we were able to cope with Covid and that we were in a position to deal with the outcome of the Ukraine war and in terms of inflation etc and effect on families and that we were in a strong position coming into the Brexit scenario. So your management of the economy has left us in a strong position consistently and that remains the case as we face new challenges. So I want to acknowledge that and thank you for that. As you said in your opening remarks yourself Minister, we have a good backdrop here. As we begin a discussion today on the economic outlook and future, we have a good backdrop in that we have 2.8 million people in employment, 4% unemployment which is effectively close to full employment, an easing of inflation and a surplus of 8.7 billion. So those are good strong opening positions as we discuss the future and look to the future. We can be proud of those achievements. As a people, while it took the leadership from yourself and your cabinet colleagues and Minister, it also took a buy-in by the Irish people at all stages and the Irish people are to be acknowledged for that. So we are in a good healthy position by way of backdrop. Obviously the immediate threat of tariffs create a new reality, a new challenge and as you said, it is good that it has been put on hold somewhat, although there remains 10%, but that there is a hold on the more severe impacts and that there are negotiations and hopefully common sense will ultimately prevail as the tariffs are not good either for the American consumer or the consumers here. So that presents a challenge which we have to be ready for and obviously it could have potentially impacts on employment, potentially impacts of a negative type on the public finances. But some of the opening position we are in helps to insulate us for that. But having said that, it is not to be welcomed, it is not to be advocated and hopefully can be abided. Also, it is important that we go on achieving foreign direct investment into the country and we have done well so far. It is a reasonable proposition that what is here will stay in every scenario given our educated workforce, our good favourable environment, relative industrial pace, a good environment on every front. It is very probable that what is here will stay. But of course the challenge will be to attract new foreign direct investment into the future if there were the kind of environment that is threatened. So that is a concern. I think it was a very good initiative on your part, Minister, to put in place in 2019 the National Reserve Fund or as is popularly known the Rainy Day Fund. It does prepare us or leave us ready for severe shocks, national disasters. We could, I mean, that could be in this, in an Irish context. That can be something like foot and mouth disease. It could be a threats to agriculture. It can be a whole range of climate events. It could be another pandemic. Who knows? But it is important to be ready for all eventualities. And that we are consistently consolidating that. The Pension Reserve Fund is a necessary exercise too given the demographic and the ageing population. And that is an important strategic weapon also. And of course, critically, the Strategic Investment Fund, future proofing, if you like, and ensuring future Ireland funding strategic investment is very, very important. And I mean, I would be saying to you, Minister, and obviously it is important that we keep a very big focus on having infrastructure of the water infrastructure or Irish water efficient and working well and delivering to complement the need for housing and proposed housing developments. And there's a huge need and I know it's a very current debate, but it's worthy of repetition in your presence, Minister, that we do need to get that linkage and to get the consistent investment and support of Irish water. But that Irish water respond to housing needs and planning applications in a given area. We had a classic example of that for a long time, indeed up to the, at the moment as well, but it's been dealt with. But in Virginia and County Cavan where there were a number of proposed developments and extraordinary, it's the most, it's one of the areas of County Cavan in that region that has the greatest demand. A great demand for housing, both private and social. A lot of sites on, with permission to build and designated and the water sewerage system needing upgrading and planning permissions not be, building not allowed because of that. That kind of thing obviously has to be eliminated. Of course we need to be abreast with technological advancements. I'd be interested when you're summing up, Minister, or having a replies arranged, to see what you would say about our position vis-a-vis artificial intelligence and its onset. And how we will, A, be fit to be part of that revolution ourselves, in an active sense, and B, be recipients of its best qualities. And we can't allow, needless to say, Minister, a fear of what might be the bad side to keep us out of that race. As we could, it's like rural electrification in the past, or it's the industrial revolution or whatever, or IT when it first arrived. We must be up there with it and using it for the best possible advantage. Human capital, of course, is the great investment. It's something we've got right consistently in Ireland. But Minister, I'd like to think that we'd go on investing in education and in skills, and in the developing of skills, and of course apprenticeships, and making those attractive. And upskilling our population, and indeed, as I mentioned, AI earlier, that our population is skilled in that sphere also. So our education investment is important. In that context, I've been talking a lot, Minister, recently in the channel, about special needs and disabilities, and that area. It's an important part of our economic future, because ultimately, as you know, Minister, and you often say in your own remarks, that our economic future and getting the economy right is ultimately only about getting life right for people, and creating the right living conditions. So I'd be interested to know that you are very committed to investing, and to hear you say that later, in the disability sector, in education for special needs, and in ensuring that every citizen can participate in the economy fully, but also create wealth. And there's no reason why a lot of people couldn't do that, who may not be getting the full chance. Physical infrastructure, I mentioned, in relation to the water is important. Of course, roads are important. Railways, one of the tragedies of our history, but it was understandable maybe in the context of the times, with immigration and the car industry and whatever, but it's a tragedy that we got rid of the railways at one time. But we do need to restore railways right through the country, and develop a rail infrastructure. Of course, we need a road infrastructure. And to be parochial, a road infrastructure is very critical in my area, that's very much into food production, and food production both in primary production and in processing, and that's necessary. And as I said earlier, foreign direct investment matters. Minister, tourism is a great Irish problem. We have tremendous potential for historical, for heritage tourism, for all of that, and it's a great driver of economic success. And I'd be interested to know that we go on investing in tourism infrastructure. We're developing, and I'll finish on this, the time is up, we're developing in our local town, a plantation museum at the moment, because that's plantation country in a very big way. And there was a huge plantation, obviously, there in the 1600s, but a lot of people in the diaspora in Canada, America, and all these people want to come home to see this, and to see their family roots and the area and whatever. And I think there's great potential there. But there's great potential to invest in tourism infrastructure all over the country. So it's a good opportunity. Thanks for being here, Minister, and I look forward to your responses later. I'm not happy about that. I'm not happy about that. I feel like I'm happy about you. I'm happy about that. I'm happy about that. But I try for the holidays. I've been happy about that. I've been happy about it already. I have to get to know my-