Mattie McGrath criticised the government's decision to delay the reopening of indoor hospitality, calling the Neffert modelling disproportionate and damaging. He argued the move risks creating a two-tier society, threatens hundreds of thousands of jobs, and demanded an independent expert review.
Key claims
McGrath said indoor dining was previously possible without major incidents and that, despite over 4 million vaccines administered, the government is delaying reopening hospitality. He described the policy as madness and warned it plans a two-tier or apartheid-style system where families can dine indoors while many young people are left outside.
Modelling concerns
He challenged the Neffert modelling figures, citing a worst-case projection of 700,000 cases and 2,170 deaths versus an optimistic projection of 81,000 cases and 161 deaths. He highlighted the tenfold discrepancies in daily-case projections and called Neffert's advice bonkers, wrong on many occasions, and in need of independent scrutiny.
Economic impact
McGrath warned that delaying indoor entertainment, pubs and restaurants would be like "taking another wrecking ball to the economy," putting 200,000 jobs at risk and jeopardising hospitality, tourism, coach hire, buses and taxis. He said business owners had prepared to reopen with stock purchases, deep cleans and staff retraining only to be thrown back into uncertainty.
Independent review demanded
He urged the minister to bring in an outside, independent panel of experts, possibly from abroad, for a fresh analysis of the Neffert advice. McGrath said many national scientists and doctors had been silenced and called for transparent access to modelling data, public health officials and the Neffert letter.
Vaccination priority and hospital risk
McGrath argued that hospital risk is now different because most older people have been vaccinated, but he accepted modelling that in pessimistic scenarios ICU numbers could rise and strain the system. He pressed for rapid delivery of 300,000 AstraZeneca vaccines arriving that day to people in their 60s or with certain medical conditions, saying those doses could be completed by the 19th of July to help prevent severe cases.
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I too believe the teacher should be here. He did a press conference only less than an hour ago. What's going on, Minister? Since last summer, we were able to have indoor dining without major incidents and without vaccines. Roll on 12 months or 13 months later, we're now in a situation where over 4 million vaccines have been administered and despite already being an outlier of Europe and the most of the rest of the world, the government are now delaying the reopening of the hospitality industry. It just is pure madness. As I believe, by also planning an apartheid system in our country. While planning to introduce a two-tier society, leaving a situation where families will be able to dine together indoors and young people will be left outside. And we expect those same young people to serve in the restaurants and we know why. And their hospitality and tourism and coach hire and everything else and tour guides. Neffert's advice is completely bonkers. It lacks any balance and understanding of the reality. Delaying indoor entertainment, pubs and restaurants is like taking another wrecking ball to the economy and tens of thousands of individuals' lives and families will be destroyed. They're holding out of fingernails. 200,000 jobs are now on the line as government delays the prospect of indoor dining. These jobs face permanent closure. And not only indoor dining, all indoor activities that we know of and also the hospitality sector in general and that includes buses, taxis, you name it. The discrepancy in the Neffert advice is so disproportionate that it is reminding us of the figures tossed around the night before the bank guarantee. The Neffert advice to government last evening was, and I quote, the worst case scenario would potentially see 700,000 cases of the virus in July, August, September. With as many as 2,170 deaths, a frightening figure, the variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic prediction was 81,000 cases and 161 deaths. So which is it? That's 10 times of a discrepancy. 10 multiplied by 10. In other words, this group of experts advising the government has said that there might be 7,600 cases a day and there might be 800 cases a day. Well, which is it? I'm asking you now, Minister, to bring in an outside, independent, and probably from abroad, panel of experts. We have many scientists and doctors in this country, but they've all been silenced and banished. And I'm calling out the media as well, who ran with this as if it was the gospel. I think this is outrageous. We need an independent analysis of the Neffert advice. We have none. Have you sought independent? You were told this last night at a pre-Cabinet meeting. Did you ask him? Are you the people responsible to this house, and by extension to the people? Are you going to say, Doctor, who wants to answer questions as he? He won't answer on even meters anymore. Opposition leaders, they haven't met us or briefed us. So, Minister, this is outrageous. It's nonsense, as I said, dressed up as murdering and outrageous, as I said, aimed at dividing our country and ruining it. Dividing our people. It's not going to run and won't be accepted, I tell you that. In fact, the entire Neffert modelling over the past 12 months has been wrong on almost every occasion. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Completely stupid and illogical. And this is the most illogical idea I ever saw. And to wait until last night and today for the teacher to tell these business people, who were expecting in anticipation for months now to be open next Monday, it's shocking and disgraceful. There's been money on stocks, deep cleans out of the place, retraining staff. I mean all the efforts, and they're thrown under the bus again. It's outrageous. Throughout this crisis, we have actually, and I say this when I was in opposition, I'd say the same when I'm in government, we have actually done it correctly in sharing information. So the letter from Neffert, the modelling information, the access to the public health officials, to be able to answer whatever question of the modelling or any other aspect of their advice, is critical and will happen, is needed. It's complex, and modelling is based on assumptions, so it's not a certain science. And particularly in this case, because the range, as you say, Deputy, of the modelling possibilities, ranges from if there wasn't any Delta, by the end of September, if I call it something like a minimum of 55 possible cases in ICU, to the most pessimistic. And in that instance, if we're pessimistic in relation to the transmissibility of the Delta virus, the comparison to the level of how similar we are to last summer, in terms of modelling what happened last summer when we opened hospitality, and taking the most negative prognosis on that. And as you say, the analysis in that most pessimistic scenario, 1,685 people in ICU. Now, the approach in this is not, in my mind, first and foremost, particularly at this instance or this occasion, to look at the case numbers. Because the circumstances have changed this year and last. And the level of people who will get into severe health difficulties, or God help us die because of COVID, will be a tiny fraction of what it would have been previously, because most of our older people have been vaccinated. But they say, and they could be right, it's not certain, that if you did have the sort of case numbers that their modelling tells them is possible, that you would have that sort of numbers in ICU. And in those circumstances, our hospital system will be back in trouble. And that is what we do need to prevent. I believe we can prevent it. The first way of preventing it, the key story is that we get the 300,000 AstraZeneca viruses, the vaccines which are arriving today, to the people in their 60s, or who have acute medical conditions, or other conditions, which means that they had a first AstraZeneca disease, and are waiting for a second one. We will have all them done by the 19th of July, and that's of critical importance. And not only, as I said, will the rule be changed to allow younger people to use the some 100,000-surplus AstraZeneca vaccine that will be available after those 60-year-olds-plus have been vaccinated, but we will also shorten the gap down to four weeks between the first and second such AstraZeneca dose. So there were not just the decisions around hospitality made yesterday, there were a number of decisions made, advice given, which allows us to actually address the health crisis after this. I believe personally that we will not see that wave, that we will actually see, we will actually have learned from last summer, we will have more of an outdoor summer, that we will open hospitality and other sectors this summer. I absolutely understand the critical importance of that for our communities, for those often mostly small family businesses, and for social life. But we will do it in a safe way, which is thought through, rather than thinking today about the health advice, so that we put a proper plan in place to be able to do that without bringing a health risk with it. I have heard it all now from the Minister and Cabinet, an effort could be right, and it might be right. And then you follow on to say you personally don't believe that it will be 7,600 cases, it might be 800 cases. What is going on in that Cabinet room? Are your ears completely doomed to? Are your eyes, and you are going to consult now with the industry? Fifteen months on when you have demoralised them and destroyed them. Will you dispense of the services of Dr. Houlhan and Nephot? A cabal I call them. Will you dispense of NIAC as well, with all these unelected experts? They are teaching the counter for this house, and so are you Minister. And you have 10 TDs in this coalition government, and you have a major sway in this government when you want to. So if you believe Nephot is wrong on their advice, act on that and protect our families, support our people. Then ask the Colonel Akela, give the young a chance. We have all paid the sacrifices. Many with their lives, many sick, but the people have put their shoulders to the wheel. We are all in this together. My God, you left that a long time ago. So, I mean, you can't have it both ways. You don't believe it will be as bad as they said. So they are playing scaring games, and they have RT, and all the media who are paid off handsomely to send the message of fear into our people. Have respect to our people, and don't be dosing with fear and threats and everything else. Old people are afraid to come out of their houses, to go back to mass even, or go back to shopping. And we can have all the rest of the world opened up for indoor dining, except us in Ireland. No one has believed in you. You have lost the public here, and you have lost them badly. Mr Ryan. I believe we will be able to follow the less pessimistic, the more optimistic modelling scenarios, because I believe actually in the capability, strength, solidarity, good common sense of the Irish people to actually steer a safer course, which also sees us opening up our country, every aspect of life. I also believe in our public service, and I believe through this crisis we all make mistakes, political system, public service system, others as well. But for us to say, get rid of all our advisers, get rid of all the health system, actually I believe our health system has stood up and shown real capability, including our advisers in this crisis. And while we are absolutely right in the political system to question them, and we do not accept the advice and just immediately go to whatever solution is suggested. No, we did not. Last night you did. What we decided was, we hear the evidence, we listen to it, we realise it is serious, and what we say now is, rather than making an immediate instantaneous decision late at night, let us take our time to talk to all the various different departments involved, and the industry, and the unions, and to come up with an approach, which actually gives us the health protection, whilst it keeps on a path to reopening, which will not close again. It is not going backwards is the key is what the Irish people want, and that is what we will do. Thank you Minister. This is the Commission which requires, and our commission, as people are very supporting the largist. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.
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